Global Harvest Update
Canadian mustard production was down sharply in 2025 with similar, but not so extreme, situations seen in Ukraine and the US.
Canada
After three successive years of higher than average mustard planting, StatsCan reported 2025 plantings at 360,000 acres, in line with the typical pre-2022 acreage. StatsCan’s breakdown by type showed a larger 45% decline for yellow mustard while seeded area of brown was down 40% and oriental lower by 24% from last year.
In volume terms, it's estimated that the Canadian mustard crop will be around 100,000 tonnes, 46% less than last year.
The US
The USDA estimated the 2025 seeded area at 165,000 acres, 11% less than the previous year. Yields are likely to be challenged again in 2025, with the mustard crop in Montana starting off 2025 in very poor shape. At the end of June, only 11% of the crop was rated good/excellent, far below the 10-year average of 47% and nowhere near last year’s rating of 98%.
Ukraine
The Ukrainian harvest was ultimately lower than estimates earlier in the year. Drought in the Southern and Central regions has taken a larger toll on yields.
Regions such as Kherson and Mykolaiv experienced a record-level drought in mid-2025. Copernicus satellite data for May 2025 shows much of southern Ukraine experiencing below-average rainfall and low soil moisture, part of a broader drier-than-average pattern across central Europe.
Condimentum expects the tightening supply situation to become more obvious by mid-2026, and prices are expected to move upwards as a result. What happens further out will depend on acreage and yields of the 2026 crop, but all estimates suggest significantly higher prices in Ukraine and indeed Canada are required to encourage growers to increase mustard acreage.
In Summary
Even though the seeded acreage from Mustard is smaller than last year in both Canada and the US, that isn’t seen as a serious threat to 2025/26 supplies. That said, the yield outlook on both sides of the border is quite vulnerable due to deteriorating weather conditions. The outlook in Ukraine suggests Ukraine will end this season with no stocks, with somewhere around 20,000 tonnes harvested in 2025.
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